Key Points: Equity investors get a preview of market fragility, Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, Consider a measured…
Election Imperatives
The Election is, in our view, the most consequential driver for the Markets this year. Here’s what has changed in…
Bonds Turn South as Yields Rally
Several months of higher inflation have brought rate cut predictions this year down to two from six in January. The…
Market Vacillates as Oil and Yields Challenge Bull
Over the past month yields have bounced between recent highs of 4.36% and just below 4% for the ten year…
Market Bull takes a Pause
Stocks have mostly been caught in a state of reverse gravity this year (what goes up - keeps going up)…
Economic and Capital Markets Update
Market Update 6/16/23
I wrote my last update as we approached debt ceiling drama with no certainty a deal would get done, or…
Market Update 5/26/23
Coming into the weekend, it appears that negotiators may actually arrive at a debt deal despite all of the acrimonious…
Market Update 2/16/23
On February 2nd, I was invited to appear in Bloomberg Markets segment on Bloomberg TV to comment on the markets.
Market Update 1/22/23
Our trend-following algorithms moved us back to a fully invested position in our US Stock Allocations last week.
Market Update 1/9/23
Our trend-following algorithms moved us back to a fully invested position in our High Yield Bond allocations.
Market Update 1/3/23
We began moving our High Yield Bond Positions defensive on Wednesday of last week. On Friday we completed those trades…
Market Update 12/27/22
We began moving our US Stock Positions defensive on Wednesday of last week. On Friday we completed those trades and…
Market Update 11/18/22
We began moving into International Stock Positions on Tuesday and US Stocks Positions on Wednesday this week and completed our…
Economic and Capital Markets Update
The more extreme market declines become, the more extreme following market actions may be.
THE 60/40 DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY BREAKS DOWN
In this commentary I’ll discuss opportunities that are emerging as markets continue to fall. I’ll also examine the impact of…
The Danger of Complacency
We are stuck. We have spent hours debating the jargon from the Fed like “transitory”, “growth below potential”, “soft landing”,…
Market Update 9/9/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our…
Market Update 8/26/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our…
Market Update 7/29/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our…
WORST START TO A YEAR SINCE THE 1970’S. CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR THE REMAINING HALF.
Our strategies moved largely defensive initially in January. Twice since then we’ve moved briefly into markets and back to a…
Market Update 6/1/22
Our algos moved us into an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our models. We began scaling…
Balanced Portfolios face Greatest Challenge in Decades
In our quarterly market commentary, advisors are accustomed to seeing sometimes bleak assessments about future stock market growth.
Market Update 4/14/22
After being long US stocks for several weeks we began to move back defensive on Tuesday and finished moving defensive…
Market Update 3/28/22
In early to mid-January we exited US Stocks and High Yield Bonds, and later sold our International stock exposure. Those…
THE FROG ISN’T JUMPING OUT OF THE BOILING WATER
The critical difference between GameStop and Amazon is that the GameStop rally was the equivalent of a retail investor Ponzi…
Inflation drives investors to US stocks
It seems impossible to escape inflation nowadays, and Thanksgiving this year is set to hit Americans’ wallets harder as they…
Inflation Creates Paradigm Shift for Advisors
Wednesday’s inflation print is further confirmation that inflation is here, it’s real, and it’s likely to continue at least into…
ARE MARKETS POISED FOR A CRASH?
Investing can be like walking through a dense forest with no map, and no ability to see the sun. Trees…
Environment Ripe for Market Rout Time Sensitive Opportunity to Attempt to De-Risk
Losses have accelerated and broken through technical resistance, suggesting that the seasonably unfavorable months of September and October may delver…
The history of inflation in the United States
Inflation has dominated much of the financial news for the past quarter as it has perked up above 4% for…
A Bubble that May Rival Tulip-Mania
In my time as an investment manager, which now exceeds thirty years, I’ve witnessed two prior bubbles. In the late…
Stocks Rally in the Face of a Mounting Pandemic
For the year, the S&P 500 moved higher by 18.4%, a remarkable feat considering the elevated levels of unemployment, business…
Markets Advance, but are Challenged During the Quarter
The strong rally that began at the end of March continued through early September, and then turned lower as covid…
Toews Returns to Fully Invested Positions as Markets Rally
After ending the last quarter in a fully defensive posture, Toews models began triggering buys as the markets rallied off…
Phil Toews’ Appearance on Cheddar TV
Note: Toews’ opinion regarding future GDP growth is not determinative.
Aiming to Bring the Quantitative and Qualitative back in Sync
Recent market turmoil followed by gains left some investors confused about where to go from here. Buying into risk assets…
Toews Fully Defensive in Q1 as Coronavirus became Global Pandemic
In January, when cases of COVID 19 appeared to be increasing exponentially in Wuhan, financial markets around the globe began…
Phil Toews on TD Ameritrade Network’s Market Overtime show
Phil Toews discusses positioning portfolios for adversity on TD Ameritrade Network’s Market Overtime show amid Coronavirus-related market turbulence.
Getting Real about the Possibilities Ahead
Position Update Toews remains fully defensive across all asset classes.i Additionally, certain equity-containing strategies hold aggregate bond positions, which have…
The Prospects for a Global Pandemic
As equity and high yield bond markets decline in the face of a potential global pandemic created by the coronavirus,…
Risk Tracks Higher in 2019 as Investors See Gains
In our last quarterly commentary, we discussed how difficult predicting recessions is, even for professionals. That was the case for…
Predicting Recessions is Hard and Often Unsuccessful
Data continues to suggest that the U.S Economy is slowing. The September U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index showed its lowest…
Recession Indicators Mount against Rising Markets
The second quarter began with gains following a strong first quarter. Markets turned lower in May in response to deteriorating…
Opportunities for Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds in 2019
Equity Valuations Remain High Prospects for High Yield Bonds Improve Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds Potentially Uncorrelated during Equity Declines…
US Joins Global Equities in Downturn
Throughout much of the third quarter global equities declined in unison with one exception: U.S Stocks. For the week of…
Advisors Capitulate in the Face of Rising Markets
In 1999, after one of the biggest bull markets of the century, advisors seemingly abandoned caution. Despite their stratospheric valuations,…
Reverse-Think your Portfolio to Target Success in 2018
In April of 2009, days from the bottom of the 2nd worst stock decline in the past 100 years, we…
Are You Vulnerable to Market Biases?
Ask yourself this question: How do I feel about the stock market (or high yield bond market)? Do I feel…
New Element of Risk Management Added across Many Toews Equity Portfolios
Markets Gain Further in Q2 After a 6% rise in the first quarter, the S&P 500 Index gained 3% in…
