The second quarter began with gains following a strong first quarter. Markets turned lower in May in response to deteriorating…
Opportunities for Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds in 2019
Equity Valuations Remain High Prospects for High Yield Bonds Improve Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds Potentially Uncorrelated during Equity Declines…
US Joins Global Equities in Downturn
Throughout much of the third quarter global equities declined in unison with one exception: U.S Stocks. For the week of…
Advisors Capitulate in the Face of Rising Markets
In 1999, after one of the biggest bull markets of the century, advisors seemingly abandoned caution. Despite their stratospheric valuations,…
Reverse-Think your Portfolio to Target Success in 2018
In April of 2009, days from the bottom of the 2nd worst stock decline in the past 100 years, we…
Are You Vulnerable to Market Biases?
Ask yourself this question: How do I feel about the stock market (or high yield bond market)? Do I feel…
New Element of Risk Management Added across Many Toews Equity Portfolios
Markets Gain Further in Q2 After a 6% rise in the first quarter, the S&P 500 Index gained 3% in…
Best thing/Worst thing Market Accelerates
Nothing gratifies investment managers or their investors like a climbing stock market. And the stock market did just that in…
Animal Spirits Realized after Election
As we flip the calendar to 2017, we are looking at new opportunities and challenges. Regardless of one’s political views,…
Investor Temptations Near Market Tops
The current stock market bull has lasted longer than normal, yet it continues to rise. After stock market advances, it’s…
Brexit and Investor Portfolios
The recent vote by the U.K. to leave the E.U. (Brexit) stoked market fears. Stock markets fell and news headlines…
Markets Fall and Recover in the First Quarter
Stock downturns are common. Every decade over the past 100 years has produced at least one loss of nearly 20%…
One of the Most Important Lessons of Investing: Declining or Lackluster Markets may be Predictive of Gains
Since 1915 the stock market has gained 10% per year (1). However, those returns aren’t provided to investors equally every…
Invoking Your Inner Spock
Over the past 18 months the global stock market has moved lower by 1.4%(i). It gained in 2014, only to…
Time Machine – What if it was 2007, and you knew what was coming?
I often fantasize about going back in time so I can replay an event more to my advantage. Like curating…
The Fed’s “Contracted Experiment in Price Control (i)”
Just as investors were unable to perceive how a housing market crash would affect their investment portfolios, we believe similar,…
Driving Whilst Looking Backwards
Want to grasp the counter-intuitive nature of investing? Try driving whilst looking to the rear (see lengthy liability disclosure below).…
Stock Complacency Arises as Market Risks Intensify
Stocks and bonds were a mixed bag in the third quarter. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%(i) for the quarter while…
Stocks Continue Rise in the Second Quarter
Toews began the quarter with a partial (1/3) allocation to US Stocks, with all other asset classes fully invested. We…
Stocks Hold Significant Risks even at Fair Value
Investing platitudes (allocate, rebalance, repeat) about stocks betray the high risks and limited time horizons for the bulk of investors.…
Toews Delivers Up Capture as Tactical Suffers
Investors remained anxious entering 2013, and there was no shortage of stress-evoking events. Despite that, the S&P 500 realized the…
The Most Important Characteristic of Loss Avoidance Strategies – Up-Capture
Originally posted on October 30th, 2013It’s not a small matter. Strong return years make outsized contributions to the overall above-inflation…
Investors Vulnerable to Fixed Income Behavioral Biases
Investors continue to view fixed income as the default “risk-off” slice of investors’ portfolios, even as they are faced with…
Markets Finish the Year Higher in the Face of Uncertainties
“Sometimes, what matters is not so much how low the odds are that circumstances would turn negative, what matters more…
Risks Mount during Second Quarter as Markets Falter
Toews portfolios began the quarter fully invested. Only a few days into the quarter, however, markets turned lower and continued…
Why we’re concerned
In our last commentary we discussed two divergent opinions on the economy. The optimistic view was represented in a recent…
Toews Participates in First Quarter Rally – S&P up 12.6%
The Toews System during Market Rallies After a turbulent year in 2011, the markets moved steadily higher to finish the…
Market Environment – Unanticipated Risks Ahead for Investors
Over the past year, there were several shocks to the economy, including an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a downgrade…
Margin Call
In a scene from the movie Margin Call, a banker looks out of his car window and says “look at…
Markets Briefly Enter Bear Market in 2011 – Investor Anxiety Surges
Sovereign debt issues have taken center stage to press stock prices down with increased ferocity. The S&P 500 declined 14%…
Markets End Flat for the Quarter after Renewed Volatility
After making sizable moves higher and lower, the markets finished the quarter flat, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.1%.…
Markets Advance 90.5% from 2009 Bottom
In our April 2009 commentary letter, only weeks after the markets hit the bottom of one of the worst declines…
Despite Fears, Stocks Advance in 2010
Despite an overtly timid mindset among investors, the bulls are the victors for 2010. The market advance in December capped…
Markets Move Higher after a Fearful Mid-Year decline
At the end of the 2nd quarter, stocks were in a severe correction, having dropped over 15% in just over…
Stock Market Drops in Second Quarter
Shortly after the market hit bottom in April of 2009, we wrote that after major declines, gains were historically “decisive…
Gains Continue into the Fourth Quarter
During the most recent quarter, the S&P continued its impressive rise and advanced 6.02%. Throughout the quarter, our proprietary models…
Emerging Markets and our Dynamic Hedging Strategy
Investing in emerging markets has the potential to generate high returns and also bring potential diversification benefits. Our case for…
Stock Market Makes Significant Gains for Quarter
In our last commentary, we looked at the powerful nature of rebounds following large stock market drops. Our conclusion was…
Looking Beyond Recent Declines
Last November when the market declined sharply, a number of managers declared that the stock market had hit the bottom.…
Toews Investors Gain Despite Stock Market Decline
Since the beginning of 2008 (the past 21 months) the S&P 500 has lost 25%. Yet, despite having lived through…
Toews Avoids a Majority of Losses in 2008
In our third quarter commentary when we noted that the markets were down 20% year to date, little did we…
