Insights

Economic and Capital Markets Update
The more extreme market declines become, the more extreme following market actions may be.
THE 60/40 DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY BREAKS DOWN
In this commentary I’ll discuss opportunities that are emerging as markets continue to fall. I’ll also examine the impact of bond losses on conventional 60/40 portfolios. Finally, I’ll look at some of the remaining challenges that face stock and bond markets as we enter the final quarter of the year.
The Danger of Complacency
We are stuck. We have spent hours debating the jargon from the Fed like “transitory”, “growth below potential”, “soft landing”, and the latest one they have dragged out, “growth recession.” Trying to wring market direction from these words is fruitless, yet endlessly compelling
The Betrayal of Bonds
For the last several decades, investors have enjoyed a benevolent and generous bond market, giving us reasons to trust in this sector's 'safe haven' reputation. But now we've been betrayed.
Market Update 9/9/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our models. After this move, high yield bonds have continued to advance this week, delivering gains for these allocations.
Market Update 8/26/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our models. After this move, high yield bonds have continued to advance this week, delivering gains for these allocations.
Market Update 7/29/22
One week ago today, our algos finished moving to an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our models. After this move, high yield bonds have continued to advance this week, delivering gains for these allocations.
WORST START TO A YEAR SINCE THE 1970’S. CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR THE REMAINING HALF.
Our strategies moved largely defensive initially in January. Twice since then we’ve moved briefly into markets and back to a defensive posture, where we’ve remained through the end of the quarter. The effect in most cases of this defensive posture has been that, as stocks and bonds have fallen, we’ve avoided a portion of those declines. The losses were significant
Market Update 6/1/22
Our algos moved us into an invested position for our High Yield Bonds allocations across our models. We began scaling into these positions on Thursday and completed the trades yesterday near the close. All other assets remain in a defensive posture.