ARE MARKETS POISED FOR A CRASH?
In Market Analysis, Market Updates onRead moreInvesting can be like walking through a dense forest with no map, and no ability to see the sun. Trees and landmarks, all that we can see, collectively obscure the path ahead. Only by ascending above the tree line can one get an understanding of the broader landscape. When investing, each factoid (unemployment, GDP, earnings, interest rates) provides what feels
Environment Ripe for Market Rout Time Sensitive Opportunity to Attempt to De-Risk
In Market Analysis onRead moreLosses have accelerated and broken through technical resistance, suggesting that the seasonably unfavorable months of September and October may delver a potentially large correction. These losses are mounting at the same time that the FED is considering removing maximum accommodation. A key behavioral riddle to be understood is that the market doesn’t always correlate with the economy. Last year, when
The history of inflation in the United States
In Market Analysis onRead moreInflation has dominated much of the financial news for the past quarter as it has perked up above 4% for the first time in years. This rise is accompanied by many typical attributes of inflationary periods such as supply shortages and surging commodity prices. It’s been a long time since we’ve had any meaningfully high inflation that investors may have
A Bubble that May Rival Tulip-Mania
In Market Analysis onRead moreIn my time as an investment manager, which now exceeds thirty years, I’ve witnessed two prior bubbles. In the late 1990’s the bubble was in internet and growth stocks, some which were priced at infinity times (negative) earnings. Prior to the financial crisis, real estate prices crescendoed to unrealistic levels. Each time, markets advanced into a “shared speculative hallucinationi” that
Stocks Rally in the Face of a Mounting Pandemic
In Market Analysis onRead moreFor the year, the S&P 500 moved higher by 18.4%, a remarkable feat considering the elevated levels of unemployment, business bankruptcies, and disruption of the travel, hospitality, and entertainment industries. The year provided our investors an opportunity to see how Toews strategies functioned during a bear market, the first realized since the 2008 financial crisis1. In this commentary, I’ll discuss
