Commentary

  • Inflation Creates Paradigm Shift for Advisors

    In Market Analysis on

    Wednesday’s inflation print is further confirmation that inflation is here, it’s real, and it’s likely to continue at least into 2022. The ramifications of this are not fully grasped by most. But historical precedent gives solid clues about how this this may play out. Given the vulnerability of both core asset classes, advisors should not ignore clear signals. The FED

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  • ARE MARKETS POISED FOR A CRASH?

    In Market Analysis, Market Updates on

    Investing can be like walking through a dense forest with no map, and no ability to see the sun. Trees and landmarks, all that we can see, collectively obscure the path ahead. Only by ascending above the tree line can one get an understanding of the broader landscape. When investing, each factoid (unemployment, GDP, earnings, interest rates) provides what feels

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  • Environment Ripe for Market Rout Time Sensitive Opportunity to Attempt to De-Risk

    In Market Analysis on

    Losses have accelerated and broken through technical resistance, suggesting that the seasonably unfavorable months of September and October may delver a potentially large correction.  These losses are mounting at the same time that the FED is considering removing maximum accommodation. A key behavioral riddle to be understood is that the market doesn’t always correlate with the economy.  Last year, when

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  • The history of inflation in the United States

    In Market Analysis on

    Inflation has dominated much of the financial news for the past quarter as it has perked up above 4% for the first time in years. This rise is accompanied by many typical attributes of inflationary periods such as supply shortages and surging commodity prices. It’s been a long time since we’ve had any meaningfully high inflation that investors may have

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  • A Bubble that May Rival Tulip-Mania

    In Market Analysis on

    In my time as an investment manager, which now exceeds thirty years, I’ve witnessed two prior bubbles. In the late 1990’s the bubble was in internet and growth stocks, some which were priced at infinity times (negative) earnings. Prior to the financial crisis, real estate prices crescendoed to unrealistic levels. Each time, markets advanced into a “shared speculative hallucinationi” that

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