Commentary

  • Time Machine – What if it was 2007, and you knew what was coming?

    In Market Analysis on

    I often fantasize about going back in time so I can replay an event more to my advantage. Like curating a response to friends that, after the fact, makes me appear brilliant. Here is an investment time machine fantasy: Imagine this: It’s 2007. You know there is a real estate bubble, and you know there will be a crash, so

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  • The Fed’s “Contracted Experiment in Price Control (i)”

    In Market Analysis on

    Just as investors were unable to perceive how a housing market crash would affect their investment portfolios, we believe similar, unanticipated risk exists in the stock market due to Federal Reserve asset price manipulation.

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  • Driving Whilst Looking Backwards

    In Market Analysis on

    Want to grasp the counter-intuitive nature of investing? Try driving whilst looking to the rear (see lengthy liability disclosure below). Or, if that seems like a bad idea, carefully consider these probable outcomes: The counter-intuitive nature of investing is both perilous and unrelenting. After markets rise, we “feel” like there are more gains ahead. If gains continue, optimism increases. If

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  • Stock Complacency Arises as Market Risks Intensify

    In Market Analysis on

    Stocks and bonds were a mixed bag in the third quarter. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%(i) for the quarter while other asset classes fared poorer. The MSCI EAFE (International) Stock index lost 6.4%, the Russell 2000 was down a painful 7.36%, and the Merrill Lynch High Yield Bond index declined 1.9%. Inflation protected bonds were also down. Toews began the

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  • Stocks Continue Rise in the Second Quarter

    In Market Analysis on

    Toews began the quarter with a partial (1/3) allocation to US Stocks, with all other asset classes fully invested. We completed our exit out of US stocks in Mid-April. During the quarter, small cap stocks initially suffered losses while the S&P remained relatively steady. Stocks began to rebound and our system re-entered in late May. We finished the quarter fully

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