Commentary

  • The Prospects for a Global Pandemic

    In Market Analysis on

    As equity and high yield bond markets decline in the face of a potential global pandemic created by the coronavirus, advisors and investors may be faced with the real prospect of a potential dramatic economic event that has already affected China and may be exported to the rest of the globe. We’re writing this to discuss Toews strategies in the

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  • Risk Tracks Higher in 2019 as Investors See Gains

    In Market Analysis on

    In our last quarterly commentary, we discussed how difficult predicting recessions is, even for professionals. That was the case for the fourth quarter as markets and the economy stretched higher despite an inverted yield curve1, a lower September U.S. Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index2, and a drop in Consumer Sentiment in August3. Why? In our view, markets advanced because the Federal

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  • Predicting Recessions is Hard and Often Unsuccessful

    In Market Analysis on

    Data continues to suggest that the U.S Economy is slowing. The September U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index showed its lowest reading in 10 years at 47.8%i, as exports dived amid an escalating trade war. Consumers are also now expressing concern about the trade conflict. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers showed in September that a near-record number of consumers

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  • Recession Indicators Mount against Rising Markets

    In Market Analysis on

    The second quarter began with gains following a strong first quarter. Markets turned lower in May in response to deteriorating economic indicators and rising interest rates. Our strategies became defensivei in response to our algorithms while the S&P 500 Index fell as much as 7% into the end of May.ii In June, as messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated

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  • Opportunities for Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds in 2019

    In Market Analysis on

    Equity Valuations Remain High Prospects for High Yield Bonds Improve Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds Potentially Uncorrelated during Equity Declines High Yield as an Alternative to Investment Grade Bonds Equity Valuations Remain High We enter 2019 fresh after experiencing the first bear market in US stocks in a decade. Prior to that downturn, we witnessed investors across the spectrum willing

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