The Danger of Complacency
We are stuck. We have spent hours debating the jargon from the Fed like “transitory”, “growth below potential”, “soft landing”, and the latest one they have dragged out, “growth recession.” Trying to wring market direction from these words is fruitless, yet endlessly compelling
WORST START TO A YEAR SINCE THE 1970’S. CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR THE REMAINING HALF.
Our strategies moved largely defensive initially in January. Twice since then we’ve moved briefly into markets and back to a defensive posture, where we’ve remained through the end of the quarter. The effect in most cases of this defensive posture has been that, as stocks and bonds have fallen, we’ve avoided a portion of those declines. The losses were significant