Insights

  • Sneaky Inflation

    Inflation in a portfolio is sneaky. Eben Burr, CEO muses on last year’s loss in a 60/40 portfolio and real returns. If you look at a statement with one-year treasuries, you can see the balance increasing, but most people prefer to focus on the line going up rather than doing the simple math to get the real return. (1+NominalRate) ÷ (1+InflationRate)-1.

  • Orion Post Conference

    If we don’t nail the soft landing and the intentional recession takes hold, corporate earnings will fall leaving less money to pay down the debt that has accrued during the low-rate feast we have been indulging in.

  • New Paradigm

    If we don’t nail the soft landing and the intentional recession takes hold, corporate earnings will fall leaving less money to pay down the debt that has accrued during the low-rate feast we have been indulging in.

  • Cash Management

    While the most predicted recession looms, we look for opportunities in every market. If the Fed finally Pivots, certain positions may become very valuable and see significant appreciation.

  • Market Update 2/16/23

    On February 2nd, I was invited to appear in Bloomberg Markets segment on Bloomberg TV to comment on the markets.

  • Employment

    Just one of the many sticking points to the Fed’s plan is the labor market. No one in their right mind wants people to lose their jobs, but if we suppress our humanity for the moment, that is exactly what the Fed and the market want.

  • IWI Study

    How can advisors help investors worry less and feel more secure? The most unsettling information uncovered in the IWI study was that 84% of people experience anxiety just thinking about their investment portfolio.

  • National Risk

    Over the past few years we have witnessed the propensity of investors to fund even the most absurd investment ideas with upwards of trillions of dollars. To this we say “OMG”. What part of your Ivy League MBA brain allowed you to think that it was a good idea?

  • Buybacks

    As debt becomes more expensive due to higher borrowing costs and a new 1% excise tax on buybacks, will funding company share purchase with debt be worth it?

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