Commentary

  • Recession Indicators Mount against Rising Markets

    In Market Analysis on

    The second quarter began with gains following a strong first quarter. Markets turned lower in May in response to deteriorating economic indicators and rising interest rates. Our strategies became defensivei in response to our algorithms while the S&P 500 Index fell as much as 7% into the end of May.ii In June, as messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated

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  • Opportunities for Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds in 2019

    In Market Analysis on

    Equity Valuations Remain High Prospects for High Yield Bonds Improve Tactically Managed High Yield Bonds Potentially Uncorrelated during Equity Declines High Yield as an Alternative to Investment Grade Bonds Equity Valuations Remain High We enter 2019 fresh after experiencing the first bear market in US stocks in a decade. Prior to that downturn, we witnessed investors across the spectrum willing

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  • US Joins Global Equities in Downturn

    In Market Analysis on

    Throughout much of the third quarter global equities declined in unison with one exception: U.S Stocks. For the week of October 10, US equities joined in to show losses across virtually every sector. Through October 15, European stocks were down down 4.9% for the year. Japan had lost .6%, with China and the broader emerging markets index down 20% and

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  • Advisors Capitulate in the Face of Rising Markets

    In Market Analysis on

    In 1999, after one of the biggest bull markets of the century, advisors seemingly abandoned caution. Despite their stratospheric valuations, assets flowed into growth and technology stocks and out of risk-managed and value funds. Investors who earned only 20% likely complained wildly to their advisors that they had only captured a fraction of the Nasdaq Composite return which gained over

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  • Reverse-Think your Portfolio to Target Success in 2018

    In Market Analysis on

    In April of 2009, days from the bottom of the 2nd worst stock decline in the past 100 years, we wrote in this commentary that it was “a good time to invest in stocks due to their bargain prices.” The commentary went on to argue the case that stocks were poised to rally strongly ahead. I got a call from

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