Insights

Despite an overtly timid mindset among investors, the bulls are the victors for 2010. The market advance in December capped off a rising year to put the S&P 500 ahead 13% for the year. The Toews system was invested through the majority of the fourth quarter. Our system exited developed international stocks and high yield bonds due to a decline

At the end of the 2nd quarter, stocks were in a severe correction, having dropped over 15% in just over 2 months. The market reached a bottom on July 2nd and made a healthy advance into the end of the quarter. Our system re-entered stocks in early September. At the end of the quarter, our proprietary accounts were fully invested

Shortly after the market hit bottom in April of 2009, we wrote that after major declines, gains were historically “decisive and significant.” The market affirmed that projection with an advance off the bottom of 65% by the end of 2009. That gain, along with robust GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010, led many to believe that the markets

During the most recent quarter, the S&P continued its impressive rise and advanced 6.02%. Throughout the quarter, our proprietary models remained fully invested (with the exception of a 3 day partial sale out of Emerging Markets in some portfolios). In fact, we have remained fully invested in US and Developed International stocks since we entered the markets in late March

Investing in emerging markets has the potential to generate high returns and also bring potential diversification benefits. Our case for emerging markets is justified by four principal causes: · Emerging markets (EM) possess a high rate of growth of GDP relative to developed countries · Emerging markets are expected to be an increasing percentage of global GDP Emerging markets return

In our last commentary, we looked at the powerful nature of rebounds following large stock market drops. Our conclusion was that large stock market losses have historically been followed by significant moves higher. Historians will be heartened that, once again, history is repeating itself. During the 2nd Quarter, stocks had their best return since the 2nd quarter of 2003 with

Last November when the market declined sharply, a number of managers declared that the stock market had hit the bottom. Despite those declarations, stock market indices continued their descent to new lows in the first quarter of this year. From its peak in October of 2007 to its low in March of this year, the S&P 500 index fell over

Since the beginning of 2008 (the past 21 months) the S&P 500 has lost 25%. Yet, despite having lived through the most significant stock market decline since the great depression, almost all of the investors with our proprietary system have experienced double digit increases in their portfolios. In the chart below, we show our management returns on our aggressive portfolio.