Insights

Toews portfolios began the quarter fully invested. Only a few days into the quarter, however, markets turned lower and continued in a negative trend through most of May and June. For the quarter, the S&P 500 lost 2.8%. International Developed Stocks (EAFE) lost 7.1%, while Emerging Markets Stocks (MSCI EM) fell 8.9%. Toews exited equities markets in May and finished

In our last commentary we discussed two divergent opinions on the economy. The optimistic view was represented in a recent WSJ poll, where the consensus of economists predicted slow but steady US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2012, with average monthly employment gains of 185,000. The opposing view, presented by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), an astute and highly

The Toews System during Market Rallies After a turbulent year in 2011, the markets moved steadily higher to finish the first quarter up 12.6%. The Toews dynamic hedging strategy bought US and international equities and high yield bonds during the first few weeks of January and stayed invested throughout the quarter. Toews systems were fully invested in all asset classes

Over the past year, there were several shocks to the economy, including an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating, and numerous debt events in Europe. The effects of these events were felt in the stock market, which declined multiple times- once by as much as 19%(1). The year ended flat for U.S. stocks, while

In a scene from the movie Margin Call, a banker looks out of his car window and says “look at these people, wandering around with absolutely no idea what is about to happen.” That’s an accurate portrayal of the current state of the perspectives of many advisors, who fear that an EU sourced Armageddon may be just around the corner,

Sovereign debt issues have taken center stage to press stock prices down with increased ferocity. The S&P 500 declined 14% for the quarter, while the MSCI EAFE index (Developed International Stocks) dropped 19%. Our system exited developed international stocks in mid-July. By late July/early August, our system had completed exiting US stocks and HY Bonds and was allocated to cash

After making sizable moves higher and lower, the markets finished the quarter flat, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.1%. In late May, as a result of the decline, we exited from our emerging markets and developed international stock positions. By early June, we had completed exiting from our US stock and high yield bond positions and were allocated to

In our April 2009 commentary letter, only weeks after the markets hit the bottom of one of the worst declines on record, we chose to focus on the likely gains ahead for the stock market. Specifically we said that since 1928, on average, after declines of 30% or more, “the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 90.7% before peaking, with the