Insights

Over the past year, there were several shocks to the economy, including an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating, and numerous debt events in Europe. The effects of these events were felt in the stock market, which declined multiple times- once by as much as 19%(1). The year ended flat for U.S. stocks, while

In a scene from the movie Margin Call, a banker looks out of his car window and says “look at these people, wandering around with absolutely no idea what is about to happen.” That’s an accurate portrayal of the current state of the perspectives of many advisors, who fear that an EU sourced Armageddon may be just around the corner,

Sovereign debt issues have taken center stage to press stock prices down with increased ferocity. The S&P 500 declined 14% for the quarter, while the MSCI EAFE index (Developed International Stocks) dropped 19%. Our system exited developed international stocks in mid-July. By late July/early August, our system had completed exiting US stocks and HY Bonds and was allocated to cash

After making sizable moves higher and lower, the markets finished the quarter flat, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.1%. In late May, as a result of the decline, we exited from our emerging markets and developed international stock positions. By early June, we had completed exiting from our US stock and high yield bond positions and were allocated to

In our April 2009 commentary letter, only weeks after the markets hit the bottom of one of the worst declines on record, we chose to focus on the likely gains ahead for the stock market. Specifically we said that since 1928, on average, after declines of 30% or more, “the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 90.7% before peaking, with the

Despite an overtly timid mindset among investors, the bulls are the victors for 2010. The market advance in December capped off a rising year to put the S&P 500 ahead 13% for the year. The Toews system was invested through the majority of the fourth quarter. Our system exited developed international stocks and high yield bonds due to a decline

At the end of the 2nd quarter, stocks were in a severe correction, having dropped over 15% in just over 2 months. The market reached a bottom on July 2nd and made a healthy advance into the end of the quarter. Our system re-entered stocks in early September. At the end of the quarter, our proprietary accounts were fully invested

Shortly after the market hit bottom in April of 2009, we wrote that after major declines, gains were historically “decisive and significant.” The market affirmed that projection with an advance off the bottom of 65% by the end of 2009. That gain, along with robust GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010, led many to believe that the markets