Environment Ripe for Market Rout Time Sensitive Opportunity to Attempt to De-Risk
Losses have accelerated and broken through technical resistance, suggesting that the seasonably unfavorable months of September and October may delver a potentially large correction. These losses are mounting at the same time that the FED is considering removing maximum accommodation. A key behavioral riddle to be understood is that the market doesn’t always correlate with the economy. Last year, when
The history of inflation in the United States
Inflation has dominated much of the financial news for the past quarter as it has perked up above 4% for the first time in years. This rise is accompanied by many typical attributes of inflationary periods such as supply shortages and surging commodity prices. It’s been a long time since we’ve had any meaningfully high inflation that investors may have
Toews Inflation Video
We believe there has been a rising unease surrounding inflation and the potential negative impact this could have on markets. Watch as CEO Phil Toews discusses his view on what is driving this inflation short term and long term with President Eben Burr. This video helps better understand how investors can position defensively.
Boom-Boom Cycle
We believe investors are now witnessing a new "boom-boom cycle". Watch as CEO Phil Toews and President Eben Burr discuss the elements that could indicate a looming market bubble. This video helps better understand how this may be creating risk in today’s markets and what advisors can do to try to prepare.
A Bubble that May Rival Tulip-Mania
In my time as an investment manager, which now exceeds thirty years, I’ve witnessed two prior bubbles. In the late 1990’s the bubble was in internet and growth stocks, some which were priced at infinity times (negative) earnings. Prior to the financial crisis, real estate prices crescendoed to unrealistic levels. Each time, markets advanced into a “shared speculative hallucinationi” that
Stocks Rally in the Face of a Mounting Pandemic
For the year, the S&P 500 moved higher by 18.4%, a remarkable feat considering the elevated levels of unemployment, business bankruptcies, and disruption of the travel, hospitality, and entertainment industries. The year provided our investors an opportunity to see how Toews strategies functioned during a bear market, the first realized since the 2008 financial crisis1. In this commentary, I’ll discuss
Markets Advance, but are Challenged During the Quarter
The strong rally that began at the end of March continued through early September, and then turned lower as covid cases continued to escalate across the country, causing fears that the market rally had gotten too far ahead of itself. In the past couple weeks, however, stocks have moved higher once again. Our algorithms moved us into a defensive posture
