Commentary

  • Market Environment – Unanticipated Risks Ahead for Investors

    In Market Analysis on

    Over the past year, there were several shocks to the economy, including an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating, and numerous debt events in Europe. The effects of these events were felt in the stock market, which declined multiple times- once by as much as 19%(1). The year ended flat for U.S. stocks, while

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  • Margin Call

    In Market Analysis on

    In a scene from the movie Margin Call, a banker looks out of his car window and says “look at these people, wandering around with absolutely no idea what is about to happen.” That’s an accurate portrayal of the current state of the perspectives of many advisors, who fear that an EU sourced Armageddon may be just around the corner,

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  • Markets Briefly Enter Bear Market in 2011 – Investor Anxiety Surges

    In Market Analysis on

    Sovereign debt issues have taken center stage to press stock prices down with increased ferocity. The S&P 500 declined 14% for the quarter, while the MSCI EAFE index (Developed International Stocks) dropped 19%. Our system exited developed international stocks in mid-July. By late July/early August, our system had completed exiting US stocks and HY Bonds and was allocated to cash

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  • Markets End Flat for the Quarter after Renewed Volatility

    In Market Analysis on

    After making sizable moves higher and lower, the markets finished the quarter flat, with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.1%. In late May, as a result of the decline, we exited from our emerging markets and developed international stock positions. By early June, we had completed exiting from our US stock and high yield bond positions and were allocated to

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  • Markets Advance 90.5% from 2009 Bottom

    In Market Analysis on

    In our April 2009 commentary letter, only weeks after the markets hit the bottom of one of the worst declines on record, we chose to focus on the likely gains ahead for the stock market. Specifically we said that since 1928, on average, after declines of 30% or more, “the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 90.7% before peaking, with the

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