“Sometimes, what matters is not so much how low the odds are that circumstances would turn negative, what matters more is what the consequences would be if that happens.” Jean Marie Eveillard Markets Finish the Year Higher in the Face of Uncertainties Does the debt situation in Europe continue to threaten global growth? Yes. Is unemployment still higher than during

Toews portfolios began the quarter fully invested. Only a few days into the quarter, however, markets turned lower and continued in a negative trend through most of May and June. For the quarter, the S&P 500 lost 2.8%. International Developed Stocks (EAFE) lost 7.1%, while Emerging Markets Stocks (MSCI EM) fell 8.9%. Toews exited equities markets in May and finished

In our last commentary we discussed two divergent opinions on the economy. The optimistic view was represented in a recent WSJ poll, where the consensus of economists predicted slow but steady US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2012, with average monthly employment gains of 185,000. The opposing view, presented by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), an astute and highly

The Toews System during Market Rallies After a turbulent year in 2011, the markets moved steadily higher to finish the first quarter up 12.6%. The Toews dynamic hedging strategy bought US and international equities and high yield bonds during the first few weeks of January and stayed invested throughout the quarter. Toews systems were fully invested in all asset classes

Over the past year, there were several shocks to the economy, including an earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating, and numerous debt events in Europe. The effects of these events were felt in the stock market, which declined multiple times- once by as much as 19%(1). The year ended flat for U.S. stocks, while