Insights

We don’t know yet how the ripple effects of American niche bank failures or an iconic 166 year old Swiss bank failure will affect us. Making sure you are hedged against the myriad risks in the new economy is absolutely essential.

Inflation in a portfolio is sneaky. Eben Burr, CEO muses on last year’s loss in a 60/40 portfolio and real returns. If you look at a statement with one-year treasuries, you can see the balance increasing, but most people prefer to focus on the line going up rather than doing the simple math to get the real return. (1+NominalRate) ÷ (1+InflationRate)-1.

If we don’t nail the soft landing and the intentional recession takes hold, corporate earnings will fall leaving less money to pay down the debt that has accrued during the low-rate feast we have been indulging in.

If we don’t nail the soft landing and the intentional recession takes hold, corporate earnings will fall leaving less money to pay down the debt that has accrued during the low-rate feast we have been indulging in.

While the most predicted recession looms, we look for opportunities in every market. If the Fed finally Pivots, certain positions may become very valuable and see significant appreciation.

Just one of the many sticking points to the Fed’s plan is the labor market. No one in their right mind wants people to lose their jobs, but if we suppress our humanity for the moment, that is exactly what the Fed and the market want.