Insights

Stock downturns are common. Every decade over the past 100 years has produced at least one loss of nearly 20% or greater and most decades have produced multiple bear markets(1). The current decade, however, is a notable exception because we have not seen such a significant loss. And until the downturn this quarter, markets have produced few meaningful moves lower.

Since 1915 the stock market has gained 10% per year (1). However, those returns aren’t provided to investors equally every year. Instead, some years deliver losses, and others provide low single digit returns. High return years, when the markets move up by 20% or more, occur infrequently but have produced 66% of stock market gains over the past 100 years

Over the past 18 months the global stock market has moved lower by 1.4%(i). It gained in 2014, only to lose those gains and more over the past 5 months. Up, down, up, down. What is going on? Investors may look at this activity and question the validity of their investment strategy. Why can’t their investment portfolio produce a reasonable

I often fantasize about going back in time so I can replay an event more to my advantage. Like curating a response to friends that, after the fact, makes me appear brilliant. Here is an investment time machine fantasy: Imagine this: It’s 2007. You know there is a real estate bubble, and you know there will be a crash, so

Just as investors were unable to perceive how a housing market crash would affect their investment portfolios, we believe similar, unanticipated risk exists in the stock market due to Federal Reserve asset price manipulation.

Want to grasp the counter-intuitive nature of investing? Try driving whilst looking to the rear (see lengthy liability disclosure below). Or, if that seems like a bad idea, carefully consider these probable outcomes: The counter-intuitive nature of investing is both perilous and unrelenting. After markets rise, we “feel” like there are more gains ahead. If gains continue, optimism increases. If

Stocks and bonds were a mixed bag in the third quarter. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%(i) for the quarter while other asset classes fared poorer. The MSCI EAFE (International) Stock index lost 6.4%, the Russell 2000 was down a painful 7.36%, and the Merrill Lynch High Yield Bond index declined 1.9%. Inflation protected bonds were also down. Toews began the

Toews began the quarter with a partial (1/3) allocation to US Stocks, with all other asset classes fully invested. We completed our exit out of US stocks in Mid-April. During the quarter, small cap stocks initially suffered losses while the S&P remained relatively steady. Stocks began to rebound and our system re-entered in late May. We finished the quarter fully