Animal Spirits Realized after Election

As we flip the calendar to 2017, we are looking at new opportunities and challenges. Regardless of one’s political views, the US markets are looking favorably on the election results. We have seen a rapid rise in stocks since the … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Investor Temptations Near Market Tops

The current stock market bull has lasted longer than normal, yet it continues to rise. After stock market advances, it’s tempting to move a bigger portion of our portfolios into stocks or other risky assets. What’s the best way to … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Brexit and Investor Portfolios

The recent vote by the U.K. to leave the E.U. (Brexit) stoked market fears.  Stock markets fell and news headlines brought feelings of uncertainty to investors across the globe.  After falling sharply for several days, markets rebounded at the end … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Markets Fall and Recover in the First Quarter

Stock downturns are common. Every decade over the past 100 years has produced at least one loss of nearly 20% or greater and most decades have produced multiple bear markets(1). The current decade, however, is a notable exception because we … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

One of the Most Important Lessons of Investing: Declining or Lackluster Markets may be Predictive of Gains

Since 1915 the stock market has gained 10% per year (1). However, those returns aren’t provided to investors equally every year. Instead, some years deliver losses, and others provide low single digit returns. High return years, when the markets move … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Invoking Your Inner Spock

Over the past 18 months the global stock market has moved lower by 1.4%(i). It gained in 2014, only to lose those gains and more over the past 5 months. Up, down, up, down. What is going on? Investors may … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Time Machine – What if it was 2007, and you knew what was coming?

I often fantasize about going back in time so I can replay an event more to my advantage. Like curating a response to friends that, after the fact, makes me appear brilliant. Here is an investment time machine fantasy: Imagine … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

The Fed’s “Contracted Experiment in Price Control (i)”

Just as investors were unable to perceive how a housing market crash would affect their investment portfolios, we believe similar, unanticipated risk exists in the stock market due to Federal Reserve asset price manipulation. Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Driving Whilst Looking Backwards

Want to grasp the counter-intuitive nature of investing? Try driving whilst looking to the rear (see lengthy liability disclosure below). Or, if that seems like a bad idea, carefully consider these probable outcomes: The counter-intuitive nature of investing is both … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

Stock Complacency Arises as Market Risks Intensify

Stocks and bonds were a mixed bag in the third quarter. The S&P 500 increased 1.1%(i) for the quarter while other asset classes fared poorer. The MSCI EAFE (International) Stock index lost 6.4%, the Russell 2000 was down a painful … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off