Commentary

  • The Most Important Characteristic of Loss Avoidance Strategies – Up-Capture

    In Market Analysis on

    Originally posted on October 30th, 2013It’s not a small matter. Strong return years make outsized contributions to the overall above-inflation returns realized by equities. It is also hugely important behaviorally for investors.

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  • Investors Vulnerable to Fixed Income Behavioral Biases

    In Market Analysis on

    Investors continue to view fixed income as the default “risk-off” slice of investors’ portfolios, even as they are faced with two distinct challenges: Yields are dismal and risks are high. Part of the problem is that solutions to the fixed income problem are foggy. In this commentary we discuss the risks, both asset based and behavioral, as well as viable

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  • Markets Finish the Year Higher in the Face of Uncertainties

    In Market Analysis on

    “Sometimes, what matters is not so much how low the odds are that circumstances would turn negative, what matters more is what the consequences would be if that happens.” Jean Marie Eveillard Markets Finish the Year Higher in the Face of Uncertainties Does the debt situation in Europe continue to threaten global growth? Yes. Is unemployment still higher than during

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  • Risks Mount during Second Quarter as Markets Falter

    In Market Analysis on

    Toews portfolios began the quarter fully invested. Only a few days into the quarter, however, markets turned lower and continued in a negative trend through most of May and June. For the quarter, the S&P 500 lost 2.8%. International Developed Stocks (EAFE) lost 7.1%, while Emerging Markets Stocks (MSCI EM) fell 8.9%. Toews exited equities markets in May and finished

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  • Why we’re concerned

    In Market Analysis on

    In our last commentary we discussed two divergent opinions on the economy. The optimistic view was represented in a recent WSJ poll, where the consensus of economists predicted slow but steady US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2012, with average monthly employment gains of 185,000. The opposing view, presented by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), an astute and highly

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