Commentary

  • Markets Fall and Recover in the First Quarter

    In Market Analysis on

    Stock downturns are common. Every decade over the past 100 years has produced at least one loss of nearly 20% or greater and most decades have produced multiple bear markets(1). The current decade, however, is a notable exception because we have not seen such a significant loss. And until the downturn this quarter, markets have produced few meaningful moves lower.

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  • One of the Most Important Lessons of Investing: Declining or Lackluster Markets may be Predictive of Gains

    In Market Analysis on

    Since 1915 the stock market has gained 10% per year (1). However, those returns aren’t provided to investors equally every year. Instead, some years deliver losses, and others provide low single digit returns. High return years, when the markets move up by 20% or more, occur infrequently but have produced 66% of stock market gains over the past 100 years

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  • Invoking Your Inner Spock

    In Market Analysis on

    Over the past 18 months the global stock market has moved lower by 1.4%(i). It gained in 2014, only to lose those gains and more over the past 5 months. Up, down, up, down. What is going on? Investors may look at this activity and question the validity of their investment strategy. Why can’t their investment portfolio produce a reasonable

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  • Time Machine – What if it was 2007, and you knew what was coming?

    In Market Analysis on

    I often fantasize about going back in time so I can replay an event more to my advantage. Like curating a response to friends that, after the fact, makes me appear brilliant. Here is an investment time machine fantasy: Imagine this: It’s 2007. You know there is a real estate bubble, and you know there will be a crash, so

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  • The Fed’s “Contracted Experiment in Price Control (i)”

    In Market Analysis on

    Just as investors were unable to perceive how a housing market crash would affect their investment portfolios, we believe similar, unanticipated risk exists in the stock market due to Federal Reserve asset price manipulation.

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